Predicting Perils

W. Gardner Selby has a column this week on the perils of prognosticating primaries (with a Texas twist, natch). Of course, even micro pundits such as yours truly (see Horse Race) need not be reminded how wrong polls can be. Although we predicted that Obama would win South Carolina, we never suspected he would double Hillary's total.

Which brings us to this possibility: we could be in a primary that matters. Seems like decades since that has been true. But this year, Virginia comes just one week after Super Duper Tuesday. And with no candidate likely to have sewn it up by then, the campaign will turn to the Old Dominion (among other places). Which means I will need to decide something, I suppose.

In Texas this week, I saw several Obama ads, which I have to admit were inspiring. Sad to think I can be swayed by a 30 second spot, even one featuring Larry Tribe, but I thought the commercial did a nice job of positioning Obama as politically transcendant.

In the end, I will almost surely vote on one criterion: electability. I am not nearly as dour about the candidates as Debris (though I am equally glad to send Rudy back to private life). So what matters to me is who will beat the McCain juggernaut in November? That requires some predicting, unfortunately. And we know how well that goes.